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Wakum Mata!
Politcally Incorrect Musings
The Great Depression 
13th-Jan-2009 11:39 am
I keep seeing news articles with references and comparisons to The Great Depression of the US back in the 1920s1930s. The paradigm has changed. We have a market cycle measured in DAYS. We have INSTANT fund transfers and a truly global market that is highly interdependent. The population is highly mobile - almost everyone owns a car. Communication is global, realtime, cheap, and instant. There are more people that are educated than are not (in 2000 80.4% have highschool or above, in 1920 it was about 16%). Today, 20% of the US population is rural according to a 2000 census. Compare this to 49% of the population being rural in 1920.

Will we have a depression repeat of the 1920s1930s?

No. We CANNOT have a 1920's1930's style depression because the world is a totally transformed place from then. Don't believe it - not for even a second.
13th-Jan-2009 07:53 pm (UTC)
Uhm, the depression was actually in the 30s...
13th-Jan-2009 08:01 pm (UTC)
The economic setup started in earnest in the late 1920s. The big stock market crash was in October 1929 and this is the date most classically associated with the start of The Great Depression.

The economic truth is that the fall started much earlier. Just like there was "The Roaring 20s", our generation had the Tech Boom. This modern economy has been failing for a long time but the physical appearance of the "disease" doesn't show quickly. It didn't back then, either.

My point is to show the differences in the equivalent position in the period before the depression hit. We are not in the full fledged "1930s" depression. I don't think we can get there. We are still in the setup for a bad economic downturn. But, like I said, we have a lot of tools they didn't have then and likely things won't be as harsh if we ever do reach a full depression.

Edited at 2009-01-13 08:09 pm (UTC)
13th-Jan-2009 08:09 pm (UTC)
TThe accepted beginning of the Depression is October 1929. It continued all through the 1930s, and it wasn't until the US entered the War that it really got out of it. That's what they teach in school, and it's what my father (who lived through it) taught me.

There's a reason why they call it the Roaring 20s, and not the Depressed 20s. The economic bubble burst at the end of the decade, and the full effects didn't happen for several months laetr.
13th-Jan-2009 08:11 pm (UTC)

Fine. 1930's depression.
13th-Jan-2009 08:30 pm (UTC)
and in an intellectual battle for the ages
the favorite Robomarkov was taken with some ferocity
by the upstart noxcat
known for his research i had markov as the winner by at least 5
but times change
i only hope i can be there for the rematch
markov was heard saying (in a constipated tone)
"oh yeah, you just wait for bonesaw to get his hands on you"
have fun
14th-Jan-2009 10:29 pm (UTC) - THIS JUST IN
robomarkov is a loser.

noxcat is smarter.

Woe unto me.

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